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皇冠信用网(www.hg108.vip):Investing amid the elections

时间:3周前   阅读:3

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If this election produces a strong mandate post-GE15, it will help with stabilising the stock market and setting the tone for 2023.

INVESTING in an election year is not an easy feat. It is in fact not good for business or the economy due to the unpredictability.

While there have always been talks of “election rally”, ironically, it appears there have been a lack of substantive empirical data to show a direction correlation.

Possibly, the general perception for capital market participants would be that an incumbent government would like to create a “feel good factor” for the investors (retail or foreign), listed companies and business community.

Hence, they would direct institutions to prop up the market to create an impression of economic vibrancy. Yet, there are no sufficient evidence till this day.

In the third world or developing nations, we have seen autocratic regimes rule over the country for a long period of time.

It wasn’t until 2018 that our own country witnessed a peaceful transition of power. That was also probably the first time that local investors got a taste of what it is like to invest in a year where the post-election outcome impacted the stock market.

The unpredictability of an election creates a lot of uncertainty. It is not easy to predict who will win although we have an entire industry conducting such research and surveys.

Think tanks, non-governmental organisations, pollsters, pundits, economist et cetera are some of the instrumental elements in an election year.

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Pollsters most notably got it wrong when they failed to foresee former United States president Donald. J Trump coming to power and the 2016 Brexit referendum, which saw the United Kingdom leaving the European Union.

After all, elections have a lot of variables including underlying sentiments which past historical data may not provide an accurate guidance for the present.

However, I find it is far more challenging to predict how the stock market would react to the outcome of an election.

Political uncertainty cause volatility

There are many factors that affect the stock market. It is overly simplistic to attribute the stock market performance of fund managers and investors are usually below par during an election year.

Having said that, most would agree that political uncertainty is a direct cause of market volatility. We ourselves have been through it where our country has witnessed three different prime ministers in the space of four years.

Thus, it is not far-fetched to conclude that the main reason our local stock market has underperformed regional peers in recent years was due to political uncertainty.

With this rationale, wouldn’t it be reasonable to assume the 15th General Election (GE15) is timely to remove the political uncertainty and reduce market volatility?

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